Leita í fréttum mbl.is

Orkuskipti eru orðskrúðstal

frekar en staðreyndir

Jarðefnaeldsneytið er orkugjafi mannkynsins en ekki vindur, sól eða vatnsafl.

Menn deila um framtíðina en þróunin í heimsmálum virðist vera algerlega háð þessum orkugjafa sem er olían. Koltvísýringsútblásturinn er risavaxið blöff sem er  blásið út af einhverjum hagsmunaöflum sem beita sakleysingjum fyrir vagn sinn.

Ég rakst á þetta skrif:

"Mamdouh SalamehonMay 25 2020 said:

I disagree with you, Mr Cunningham. On the strength of China’s bouncing back and its oil demand almost back to 2019 levels, I would project oil prices to range from $40-$50 a barrel in the second half of this year and touch $60 in early 2021.

Another bullish factor is that US shale oil production has declined by 2.2 million barrels a day (mbd) according to comments from the US Secretary of Energy while other highly reliable research showed the decline in May to be 4 mbd.

The reason China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) hasn’t set an economic growth target for 2020 is that Chinese decision makers can’t set a target without assessing first the damage that the coronavirus outbreak has inflicted on the economy. Once this has been accomplished, they will set a relevant growth rate.

There were reports that China’s economy might have declined by more than 6% in the first three months of 2020. However, judging by the fact that China’s crude oil imports have rebounded to nearly pre-coronavirus levels according to Bloomberg News on the 18th of May, I tend to discount such loss and estimate it by 2.5%-3.0% only. In fact, some projections see China’s economy growing at 6.8% in 2021 compared with 6.1% in 2019.

Long term, rising tensions between the U.S. and China are weighing on global markets. It will act as a real damper on the global economy, global oil demand and prices exactly as it did during almost two years of war between March 2018 and December 2019.

The intensifying anti-China rhetoric in the United States and direct attacks on China by President Trump mean that he is preparing to break the truce reached in December 2019 and resume the trade war immediately after the US exits the lockdown. He will not fare better than the previous time. He will lose the trade war again.

Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London"
 
Ég held að Mr. Salameh hafi rétt fyrir sér. Veröldin er ekki komin á þann stað að hún geti talað sig frá þeirri staðreynd að olían er undirstaða hins tæknivædda mannlífs á jörðinni.
 
Það er mannfjölgunin sem er vandamálið ef að orkuskipti eiga að verða annað en orðskrúðstal.

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Halldór Jónsson
Halldór Jónsson

verkfræðingur, flugdellukall, tennis-og badmintonspilari

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